**NZCLIMATE & ENVIRO TRUTH NO 166
28 FEBRUARY 2008
I have just finished reading "Textbook of Gravity, Sunspots and Climate" by Frederick Bailey, published in Ilfracombe, UK in 2007
I find it most persuasive. He uses straightforward Newtonian mechanics to argue that the Sun moves in an irregular orbit around the centre of mass of the solar system, determined by the changing gravitational attraction and orbital positions of the four major planets. This leads to a variability in solar radiation received by the earth which is not global. but highly regional.
He uses this theory to calculate solar behaviour for the medieval warm period and the Maunder minimum which are plausible.
He also argues that sunspots are caused by the perturbation of the sun's interior when the planetary effects are greatest, and he concludes that the earth's climate is not directly influenced by sunspots.
His theory explains why the North West Passage is now ice free, for the first time since Roald Amundsen navigated it in 1903-1908, and he explains why the Franklin Arctic expedition failed.
He predicts that the next cool period should start in 2020, but it looks like it is starting earlier than this.
It does occur to me that ocean oscillations could also be an effect of the variable sun, and why they are often regional rather than global.
Frederick Bailey claims to come from Plymouth. The book is available from a number of international booksellers.